Selected Regime Calls | Contrarian edge framework

Consensus: Growth was solid, Fed tightening was “normalization.”
CE Lens: Liquidity tightened sharply as QT + rising funding stress hit reserves.
Outcome: Risk assets sold off aggressively in December despite healthy data. 

Consensus: Economic collapse and systemic failure.
CE Lens: Unlimited Fed liquidity overwhelmed credit stress and stabilized funding.
Outcome: Markets bottomed before economic data improved. 

Consensus: Inflation was transitory, policy supportive.
CE Lens: Liquidity momentum rolled over, credit stopped improving, positioning crowded.
Outcome: 2022 drawdown followed as liquidity tightened. 

Consensus: Regional bank crisis signaled systemic risk.
CE Lens: Liquidity backstopped via BTFP, credit spreads failed to confirm crisis.
Outcome: Risk stabilized and equities resumed higher. 

Consensus: Broad bull market driven by growth optimism.
CE Lens: Positioning crowded in megacaps, breadth deteriorating, liquidity flat.
Outcome: Rotation and volatility increased despite index highs. 

Consensus: Fed cuts marked a new easing cycle.
CE Lens: QT ended but liquidity was only stabilized, not expanding; funding stress remained.
Outcome: Markets held up, but downside convexity increased and volatility followed. 

Consensus: Balance sheet expansion meant easy money was back.
CE Lens: Reserve management replaced QT, buffers gone, credit priced for perfection.
Outcome: Risk assets supported short-term, but fragility elevated beneath the surface.

These examples illustrate regime identification, not investment recommendations or performance claims.